Being a popular political leader is an intangible thing – you’re either popular or you’re not, and sometimes it can be hard to work out exactly the reasons for either. And while being popular (or at least what political pollsters describe as “neutral”) doesn’t guarantee an election win, you will find it almost impossible to win if you’re not.
Kevin Rudd was popular, then he suddenly wasn’t. Will Hodgman was popular from the day he entered Parliament, almost like some sort of birthright. Peter Gutwein wasn’t initially particularly popular, but he was strong and decisive and that made him super popular. Jeremy Rockliff? Well he’s popular enough, but after over 20 years in Parliament it seems the jury is still out on his leadership qualities.
Across the Tasman, the New Zealand Nationals cycled through half a dozen leaders in the last five years before they found someone who could challenge now former Prime Minster Jacinda Ardern, and her until recent stratospheric popularity.
Across the same period, here in Tasmania the Labor Party has the popular Rebecca White, who has been leader of the party for all but a brief period of seven weeks since 2017.
Such was Ms White’s initial popularity that when Jacinda Ardern became the New Zealand Prime Minister, Ms White became known in some political and media circles as “our Jacinda” and for a while she seemed destined to emulate the feats of Ms Ardern, and win the 2018 state election.
Unfortunately, Ms White drank her own kool-aid and proposed a radical pokies policy which ultimately contributed heavily to her defeat.
Five years and another election defeat later, Ms White remains the Labor Leader, and remains modestly popular. But the prospect of her taking the top job seems more remote than ever, despite a third term Liberal Government now on its third Premier – the ultimate demonstration that popularity alone isn’t enough for Ms White.
It’s worth remembering, the next election is now only a little over two years away.
Currently, the Government is drifting to a hung Parliament situation following the next election, with the foolish decision to increase the size to 35 likely to leave Labor and the Liberals each stranded on 13 or 14 seats, a few Greens, and then a handful of independents and likely some Jacqui Lambie members from the north and north west holding the balance of power.
In such a scenario, the Liberals would almost certainly be forced to govern in minority and then, I assume Labor’s strategising goes, they’ll win the next election in a landslide.
But nothing in politics is set in stone. Just ask the Liberals who expected this in 2006, but came out the other side with Labor still in majority.
So Labor needs to get their house in order if they are to be a serious chance in 2026.
And this is where Mr O’Byrne comes in.
Following his record-breaking 22 day leadership of the Party in mid-2021, Mr O’Byrne currently remains in a sort of Parliamentary purgatory – he’s still a member of the ALP, but not a member of the Parliamentary Labor Caucus. In practice, he effectively operates as an independent.
It’s worth remembering that when elected in 2010, O’Byrne was immediately appointed a Minister and while having mixed results (his ill-fated regional economic plans and fulsome support for the job-destroying forestry deal were two stand-outs), he quickly established himself as a genuine threat to then struggling Premier Lara Giddings.
But one of the Number One Rules of politics is timing, and O’Byrne missed his. Despite much chest-beating and briefing of the media about his ambitions, he failed to pull the trigger on a leadership challenge and subsequently lost his seat at the 2014 election, while Ms Gidding retained hers.
Back in the Parliament since 2018 and with his time-out for past indiscretions arguably behind him, it is time for Labor to bring him back.
Now, I am long on the record as saying that I believe that Dean Winter will be the next Labor Pemier, and I haven’t changed my views on that. For starters, he is “popular.”
But he also lacks political experience and the hard-headeness needed to succeed at this stage. He reminds me of Will Hodgman pre-2010, popular and enthusiastic, but not yet ready to win.
In contrast – while according to the various polling undertaken over the past decade he’s not particularly popular – Mr O’Byrne is one of State Labor’s most experienced and skilled politicians, qualities which the State Labor Party are severely lacking in.
Sure, they’re from the same seat, and sure they’re both men (noting that the current leadership team are both women). But they also offer the best chance of winning in 2025 – which should be Labor’s number one aim.
If Labor are serious about the next election, they will move on from Ms White and install a leadership team of Mr Winter and Mr O’Byrne just as soon as they can.
That really would give the Government something to think about.
FOR THE RECORD: Mr O’Byrne declined to respond to questions from this column about whether he wished to return to the Labor caucus, and the Labor leadership. Read into that what you may.
