Make no mistake about it, Premier Jeremy Rockliff has indeed scored a major political victory and lasting legacy this week by finally securing Tasmania our own AFL team.
But in doing so I am reminded of words reputedly uttered by King Pyrrhus of Epirus following the battle of Asculum in 297BC “If we are victorious in one more battle with the Romans, we shall be utterly ruined”. While reportedly victorious in the battle, Pyrrhus lost a large part of his force and most of his commanders, and ultimately was forced to retreat from Italy.
The question is, is the price paid (both in dollars and political terms) by Premier Rockliff for this stunning Stadium and AFL victory similarly too high, and something he will come to regret at the next election?
There’s no doubt securing a Tasmanian AFL team is popular (at a taxpayer price of $12 million a year for 12 years, it must be noted), but the truth is the billion-dollar Macquarie Point stadium is as popular as syphilis at a sex party.
By pumping so much money into the South Premier Rockliff is also going against the iron-clad rule of Tamanian politics that state elections are “won in the north” (Braddon, Bass and Lyons). The $130 million upgrade of UTAS stadium in Launceston will help offset the pain somewhat, but with the new 35-seat parliament requiring that the Liberals win 50 percent of the primary vote in each of those seats to have even a hope of retaining government, you’ve got to ask if anyone in the Government has actually done the electoral maths on this thing.
This is not to take anything away from the Premier and his Sports Minister Nic Street. They have held the line against strong opposition to funding the Macquarie Point stadium (including from this columnist) and have succeeded in persuading the Federal Labor Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to cough up $300 million to help make it happen. No mean feat.
Since the VFL officially became the AFL in 1990, most Tasmanian Premiers have had a crack at securing Tasmania our own team and ended up holding only a deflated Sherrin. For example, who could forget former ALP Premier Paul Lennon going cap-in-hand to AFL headquarters to lobby then League Chief Andrew Demetriou in 2008, only to reportedly be “dismissed as if he were unimportant” (the ultimate insult to Premier Lennon) and made to wait in the glass-walled lobby for 15 minutes – all the while the media filmed his obvious discomfort from outside.
But where Lennon, Bacon and Barlett failed, Jeremy Rockliff has succeeded – although it must be said his ultimate success is built on the efforts of both Will Hodgman, who commissioned the Godfrey Taskforce in 2019, and then Peter Gutwein who first announced the (then floating, now Mac Point) stadium in 2022.
It’s a salient reminder of Federal-State relations and one of the number one rules of politics I learned during my time as Chief of Staff to then Premier Will Hodgman. It’s a lot easier to get money out of Governments of the opposite political colour in Canberra, than one of your own side.
Does anyone really think that a re-elected Scott Morrison would have provided $300 million to a state that he allegedly called “mendicant” in 2018?
This is a lesson which Labor Leader Rebecca White has also learned this week – to her detriment.
After boldly taking a strong position against the Stadium, Prime Minister Albanese’s preparedness to ignore Ms White’s political positioning has left her as political roadkill and raises serious questions about her influence within the Labor Party, and future as State Labor Leader.
If Ms White can’t convince even her own Federal Leader of the merits of her position, how can she possibly retain the confidence of own party-room? Even exiled Labor Leader and future contender David O’Byrne – who backed the stadium – appears to have had more influence with the Prime Minister. At the very least, he read the green better.
Labor’s Federal Member for Lyons Brian Mitchell, as well as potential Labor contenders for Bass and Braddon, must also be wondering whether Anthony Albanese is serious about Tasmania at the next federal election after stumping up for Macquarie Point. Perhaps the PM doesn’t think he needs Tasmanian seats given the state of political play on the mainland.
Finally, this whole saga is a salutary lesson in how to negotiate with Governments. Like Larry Kestelman a couple of years ago with his outrageous Jack Jumpers deal, the AFL have learned that when the Tasmanian Government wants something, negotiating with them can be like taking candy from a baby.
As much as politicians seek to get the best possible deal, at the end of their day it’s not their own money they are negotiating with. Rather than the real money that families or business deal in, it’s just numbers on a piece of paper.
And the bureaucrats who “negotiate” on behalf of the Government usually have no real-world business experience, and generally lack the ability to call out a bad business deal with they see it.
If 2019 I wrote a column about Tasmania’s AFL team travails saying that “The AFL are playing us for fools” by denying us a team.
Four years later, we’ve now got our own team, but nothing much else has changed.
The AFL may not have played us for fools, but they’re certainly laughing all the way to the bank.
- Brad Stansfield is a political and campaign strategist and a partner at Font PR and Font Publishing.