FORECASTS of below average rainfall are making some Tasmanian farmers nervous as parts of the state are already experiencing dry conditions.
While widespread rains throughout winter have so far been recorded in many regions, for farmers in the southern midlands, Derwent Valley and Central highlands and some parts if the East Coast, conditions are worrying.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest long-range forecast says for August to October, below median rainfall is 60-80 per cent likely for large parts of southern and eastern Australia.
Above average maximum temperatures are also more than 80 per cent likely from August to October for almost all of Australia.
For the next three months the BOM says above average minimum temperatures are very likely, with a 60 to greater than 80 per cent chance across the country.
The BOM says the forecast is influenced by several factors, including likely El Niño development, potential positive Indian Ocean Dipole development, and record warm oceans globally.
Gretna farmer Wayne Walker said conditions in his area were already very dry after below average rainfall in autumn and winter.
“I’ve got a job to see the plough for dust today,” he said.
“The Derwent Valley is terrible. I think we’ve only had about 150mm for the year, which is not a lot. If we get a week of hot windy weather, we’ll be gone here.”
Data from the BOM shows July was the warmest on record for Tasmania.
Temperatures across the state were at 2.02C above average.
While nationally rainfall was close to average, rainfall for July was below average for the southern two thirds of Western Australia, most of South Australia, eastern New South Wales, Victoria and eastern Tasmania.
Australia’s national area-average mean temperature for July was 1.19C above the 1961-1990 average, the ninth-highest on record since 1910.
For Tasmania, the July statewide mean maximum temperature was 1.40 °C above the 1961-1990 average, the warmest on record.
Hollow Tree farmer Richard Hallett said it has been an extremely dry year in their area so far.
“I think we’ve had about 114mm for the first seven months for the year, so that’s really dry,” he said.
“It’s probably one of the driest January to July periods that we’ve ever had, so it’s not great.”
Mr Hallett said while their investment in irrigation across the farm will help with their cropping program, for dryland areas of the farm it is a different story.
“That doesn’t help the 90 per cent of the farm where we need to grow pasture and grass for animals,” he said.
“It has certainly been a very dry start to the year so far. We are in a very low rainfall zone down here though, so we don’t expect much rain every year.”
Planting of barley and wheat is now under way on the Hallett family’s Llanberis operation and Mr Hallett said so far conditions were ideal.
“Conditions are perfect for sowing at the moment,” he said.
“We’ve had about 18mm of rain over the last week, so there’s a little bit of moisture there to get things started. The last couple of springs have actually been too wet here which has been counterproductive.”
As well as low rainfall, Mr Hallett said temperatures so far this year have also been warmer than normal.
“July was ridiculously warm, I’d say a couple of degrees warmer than normal at least,” he said.
The BOM says clear skies and light winds resulted in high daytime temperatures in parts of northern and eastern Australia in July.
Northerly airflow brought unusually mild daytime temperatures to Tasmania between the July 1-3 and again on July 13 and some stations had their highest July temperature on record on these days.
Tasmania’s statewide mean minimum temperature was 2.63C above the 1961-1990 average, the warmest on record since observations begun in 1910.
Oatland farmer Brian Fish said conditions at his farm were holding in at the moment, but the lack of rain was a concern.
“It has certainly been drier than most normal winters, but it suits us to not be too wet up here where I live,” he said.
The BOM says rainfall was below average for the southern two thirds of Western Australia, most of South Australia, eastern New South Wales, Victoria and eastern Tasmania.
July rainfall was very much below average in the driest 10 per cent of historical observations for a number of areas across the country including parts of eastern Tasmania.